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Evidence Based Accounting Theory for Derivatives
Forward and Future Securities Analysis
Appendix 1 - Source code and illustration with mathematica for EBAT
appendix 2 - Black-Scholes option pricing model with MS Excel 97
Appendix 3 - IASC exposure draft E62: Financial Instrument: Recognition
and Measurement
The Evidence Based Accounting Theory (EBAT) can be summarized as follows:
In summary, if audited financial statements are to be made more useful for financial statement users they should treat all sources of forecast error consistently with respect to the risk associated with these errors. Since audit risk is the risk associated with misstatements, audit risk is the risk that should also be associated with omissions of material future events. Thus, the only material future events that should be omitted are those that have less than audit risk possibility of occurring. The accounting principle of conservatism suggests that this should be especially true of future events that have adverse consequences to the firm.
Smieliauskas [1998] classified the financial instruments into three regions. Region I: those that require recognition. Region II: those that do not require recognition, but should disclose. Disclosure is assumed needed because this region represents contingencies which while not recognized have sufficiently high probability of occurring that most people would consider it misleading if the item were not disclosed. Region III: those risks and uncertainties that do not require even disclosure because they are so remote.
In EBAT framework, we have the disclosure criteria and measurability criteria. Disclosable events are those with a cumulative after audit probability of material misstatement in excess of planned audit risk if the item were not disclosed. Measurable events are those which have the added condition that the posterior probability distribution of error without recording the event is such that one minus audit risk probability is within material amount of at least one point estimate.
Figure 1 shows conditions of events that are disclosable and measurable, because the probability of misstatement is less than audit risk if we record it as 10.
Figure 1 - Disclosable and Measurable Items
Figure 2 shows conditions of events
that are disclosable but not measurable.
Figure 2 - Posterior Description
of Items that is disclosable but not measurable.
The measurement issue from the auditor's point of view is that the point estimate cannot result in material differences from other possible values more than audit risk percentage of times (e.g., not more than audit risk probability of materially different outcomes). Therefore, whether to record, disclose, or not depends on three major factors for financial derivatives, namely, materiality, audit risk, and the probability distribution of the underlying assets.
In EBAT framework, probability of management intent is very important. If management intends to sell the financial instrument, then fair value may be more relevant. However, such probabilities of intent may be quite difficult to access.
In the next section, I will introduce forward and futures contracts first and analyze them using fair value accounting and EBAT respectively.
Foreign currency forward price calculations are complicated by the need to factor in the interest rate differential between two countries. The relationship between currency spot rates and currency forward rates is expressed by the following formula:
|
|
|
|
| Annual rate | 4.93% | 0.48% |
| Quarterly rate | 1.21% | 0.12% |
| Spot rate | 140.22 J¥ / U.S. $ | |
FX = 140.22 × (1.0012/1.0121) = 138.71 J¥/U.S. $
If the forward foreign currency rate is higher or lower than 138.71 J¥/U.S. $, an investor could make alternative investment decisions and obtain a risk-free incremental (arbitrage) profit.
Figure 3: Normal distribution with
mean = 440 and standard deviation = 5
Figure 4: Normal distribution with mean = 440 and standard deviation = 10
Figure 5 - Normal distribution
with mean = 440 and standard deviation = 180
The purchaser of an option has the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell a specified quantity of a particular commodity, a foreign currency, or a financial instrument, at a specified price, during a specified period of time (American option) or on a specified date (European option). There are two types of option contracts, call options and put options.
Call options provide the holder the right to acquire an underlying at an exercise or strike price, throughout the option term. The holder pays a premium for the right to benefit from the appreciation in the underlying. Put options provide the holder the right to sell the underlying at an exercise or strike price, throughout the option term. The holder gains as the market price of the underlying falls below the strike price.
This fair value is composed of the following components:
The combination of the effect of discounting and the volatility value of an option is commonly referred to as the time value because these components converge to a zero value as the option expires.
A common option pricing method uses the Black-Scholes Model. That model uses a complex mathematical formula that computes the value of an option at a given point in time. It can be applied without adjustment to both European options and American call options on stocks that do not pay dividends and is based on a number of highly limiting assumptions such as:
At a high-level view, it is important to recognize that the value of an option depends on the following basic variables:
In the Appendix 2, I briefly introduced using Microsoft Excel 97 to formulate Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model.
The payoffs for short call, long put and short put are as follows (see Figure 7, 8, and 9)
Short call = call premium - Max{0, ST - X}
Long put = - put premium + Max{0, X - ST}
Short put = put premium - Max{0, X
- ST}
Figure 7 - payoff of short call
Figure 8 - payoff of long put
Figure 9 - payoff of short put
Suppose we denote by St the price at time t of a share of stock. The lognormal distribution assumes that the natural logarithm of one-plus-the-return from holding a share of stock between time t and time t + Dt is normally distributed with mean u and standard deviation s. Thus, the stock price S t+Dt at time t + Dt is as follows:
where Z is a standard normal variable with mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1.
Therefore, in order to estimate the probability distribution of S t+Dt we need to know m and s.
Assume we have 5,000 stock option contracts with the following parameters:
Current stock price = $40
Strike price = $40
Risk-free rate = 6%
Materiality = $10,000
Audit risk = 5%
In summary, using EBAT, the accounting treatment is simple and consistent compared to fair value approach as proposed by IAS D62 and FASB 133. However, with EBAT, we have to make additional estimate about the probability distribution of the underlying assets, which is sometimes different from standard finance theory.
Lam and Smieliauskas [1996] realized the relationship between the hedging concept and the measurability concept in their EBAT theory framework. In any hedging transaction, the intention is to reduce uncertainty especially relating to the downside risk. Under EBAT, measurability implies the existence of a point estimate with a certain audit risk. The two concepts are related because any reduction of uncertainty will allow an easier assessment of point estimates. Hedging should lead to an increase in measurability.
The most important feature of IAS D62 and FASB 133 is that it requires that an entity recognize all derivatives as either assets or liabilities in the statement of financial position and measure those instruments at fair value.
The initial measurement of all financial assets and liabilities, including derivatives, would be at the fair value of consideration paid or received. This is no different from any other asset. Transaction costs would be included for those financial assets that will subsequently be carried at amortized cost; transaction costs would be excluded for those financial assets that will subsequently be re-measured to fair value (see below).
Fixed maturity securities (debt, loans, receivables, and mandatorily redeemable preferred shares) that the enterprise has the intent and ability to hold to maturity, and those financial assets for which fair value cannot be reliably measured. Those financial assets should be measured at amortized cost using the effective interest rate method (with fixed maturity) or cost (without fixed maturity).
The Standard would impose strict tests for intent and ability to hold a security to its fixed maturity. Within a broad category of fixed maturity securities, a single sale of prior to maturity would call into question the enterprise's intent to hold the rest of that category of securities to maturity.
Subsequent measurement of all financial liabilities except derivatives and liabilities held for trading purposes would be at the original recorded amount less amortization of any premium or discount. Derivatives and trading liabilities, however, would be re-measured to fair value.
For those financial assets and liabilities that are re-measured to fair value, an enterprise would have the option either to:
Recognize the entire adjustment in net profit or loss for the period, or recognize in net profit or loss for the period only the portion of the adjustment relating to securities held for short-term trading, with the remainder of the adjustment reported as a separate component of equity until the financial asset is sold or liability is extinguished, at which time the realized gain or loss would then be reported in net profit or loss.
For financial assets carried at amortized cost, a strict asset impairment test would apply, with the impairment write-down to net profit or loss and reversal of impairment to net profit or loss, up to cost. Impairment is the difference between carrying amount and estimated recoverable amount (present value of cash flows discounted at the loan's original effective interest rate).
If a financial asset or liability is sold or transferred, the difference between the carrying amount of the asset or liability sold and the proceeds is included in net profit or loss.
If part of a financial asset or liability is sold or extinguished, the carrying amount is split based on relative fair values. If fair values are not determinable, a cost recovery approach to profit recognition is taken. Similar treatment is required if a new financial asset or liability is created as a result of a transfer. The standard would provide guidance on when fair value is reliably measurable.
Under the draft interim standard, hedge accounting would be permitted in certain circumstances, provided that the hedging relationship is clearly defined, measurable, and actually effective. Guidance is provided on when a hedge is effective.
For a fair value hedge of an existing asset or liability using a derivative, any gain or loss on the hedging instrument and on the hedged item would be included in net profit or loss for the period. The carrying amount of the hedged item is adjusted even if that asset or liability is otherwise carried at cost.
For a cash flow hedge of an existing asset or liability, a commitment, or an uncommitted forecasted transaction, the gain or loss on the hedging instrument is reported as a separate component of equity until the hedged transaction affects net profit or loss. In the case of a hedge of a forecasted asset or liability acquisition, a key question, still to be resolved, is whether the amount reported as a separate component of equity becomes part of cost of the asset or liability at the time it is actually acquired (sometimes called 'basis adjustment'), or whether it remains a separately amortizable component of equity.
In 1993, the Group of Thirty (G30) - a worldwide group of representatives from industry, law, accounting, academia, and the public sector - built a framework of practices and principles for derivatives. It quickly became an industry standard as financial institutions used it to re-evaluate internal controls for derivatives trading and risk management activities. US banking regulators used it as a basis for guidance. Today, it still provides a comprehensive introduction to derivative activities and internal controls.
However, G30 recommendations unfulfilled the accounting policy for derivatives, instead, G30 recommended:
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